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BSE Sensex vs. Gold

February 22nd, 2007 | Tag(s): , | Popularity: 23% [?] |

With the BSE Sensex 30 market index in consolidation mode and gold prices in an uptrend, let’s take a look at their relative performance. I have used the US gold ETF (GLD) since Yahoo Finance does not track gold prices in Indian rupees. The 2-year chart that the Sensex has clearly outperformed gold by a 2:1 margin.

Sensex vs. Gold 2005-2007

But if we look at year-to-date performance, gold has fared much better:

Sensex vs Gold 2007 YTD

A similar scenario can be seen in Japan, where the Nikkei continues to hit all time highs, but the yen keeps weakening, and gold prices in yen are rising rapidly. A domestic stock market bull accompanied by a gold bull may simply mean a further devaluation of the local currency. Look at the Dow Jones - Gold ratio over the past few years to realize that the recent highs made by the Dow don’t look so good when priced in gold.



2 comments:

  1. shreekrishna [February 22nd, 2007]:

    Nice to see you again after a long break.

  2. JPM [March 12th, 2007]:

    Interesting article, the first graph tells us that either the stock market is over-valued and you can expect to see a correction (which happened) OR that the upside of gold is high (which I believe is true). You can read more about my gut feeling on gold price at http://www.jpmartin.com/investment/buying-the-old-is-gold-story

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