Readings: An Intermediate Bottom for the US Dollar?
Calls for a reversal of dollar weakness:
- Carl Swenlin @ Financial Sense: Dollar Trying to Turn Up
The U.S. Dollar is trying to turn up for the fourth time since it topped in 2004, but this bottom looks more promising than the prior three. While the long-term trend is down, this bottom is the third confirmation of the descending wedge formation, a technical configuration which normally resolves to the up side. This wedge is also a long-term formation, so the direction of a breakout has long-term implications.
- BCA Research: The U.S. Dollar Is Poised For A Bounce
. . . speculators are short the currency and sentiment has been declining for the past 18 months - both measures are often good contrarian indicators.
- Daily Speculations: US Dollar
. . . recent moves in break even inflation expectations as measured by TIPS and nominals, industrial and commodity metals like gold and copper, and inflation as measured by the Bureau of Labor statistics turning lower may portend the turn in the U.S. dollar to higher levels particularly versus the European currency pairs.
Note that even if the dollar turns up, we may or may not see weakness in the Indian rupee.
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