Comments on: Orpheus: Reliance Natural Gas, BSE Oil Index

By: Siddharth

Siddharth — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 13:47:08 +0000

I have purchased RNRL at Rs77.7 and i think, it will go up definitly because of demand issues.
What say?

By: Amit

Amit — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 16:08:29 +0000

RNRL has touched nearly 60- meaning a nearlt90% rise since Orpheus tracked it

By: Kaushik

Kaushik — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 08:56:56 +0000

Thanks, but not really my ‘pick’ - the credit goes to Orpheus for catching a 30% move since early June.

By: amit

amit — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 10:05:12 +0000

RNRL has already moved up and has stayed steady despite the correction. Good pick!

By: Rushh

Rushh — Sun, 10 Jun 2007 05:24:08 +0000

Doesn’t RNRL have an agreement of buying natural gas from RIL at a cheaper rate than it gives to other clients? I had read about this when the reliance split happened.

By: Kaushik

Kaushik — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 04:31:47 +0000

Well, the article compares Sensex with the BSE Oil & Gas index to show relative strength in the latter; it then plots the Oil & Gas index vs. RNRL (not RELIANCE.NS) to show relative strength in the stock. I can’t duplicate this using NSE data. NSE’s Energy Sector index doesn’t even include RNRL.

By: shreekrishna

shreekrishna — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 04:24:54 +0000

-download historical data from NSE
-plot against RELIANCE.NS , as it closely indicates S&P

I think you must have tried this.

Is it the RS you mean ?

Thanks

By: Kaushik

Kaushik — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 06:24:11 +0000

It depends: RNRL can do several things (hedge costs using futures, enter into a favorable purchase agreement with RIL, pass on costs to customers, etc) which can offset the price rise in the commodity.

For example, check this: http://us.rediff.com/money/2006/feb/04ril.htm

I think the bullish argument is from the demand side: Given the acute power shortage in India, there should be plenty of demand even at higher price points. But look at its fantastic growth prospects, given India’s plans for infrastructure spending!

By: amit

amit — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 06:07:49 +0000

But since RNRL is dependent on natural gas and if the prices rise faster than other fuel alternatives, wouldnt RNRL cost of production too rise and make it unattractive.

By: Kaushik

Kaushik — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 05:55:07 +0000

Amit: Thanks for the correction. However, the RS analysis is certainly based on RNRL. not RIL. Moreover, given RIL’s range of businesses, it may not be a “pure play” on natural gas based power generation.