A Bull in China, A Bear on China
It’s convenient that Rogers has just come out with his book: A Bull in China
Not for something not quite as bullish - Martin Hutchinson @ Prudent Bear: The coming China crash
. . . the Chinese banks have an enormous volume of bad loans — $911 billion at May 2006, according to a later-withdrawn estimate by Ernst and Young, which must surely have ballooned to $1.2-1.3 trillion now.
That explains why China Investment is somewhat un-aggressive in its international investment strategy. China’s $1.4 trillion of reserves are in fact almost all required to prop up the banking system, when the inevitable liquidity crisis occurs.
We have seen this movie before; the Japanese banking system’s bad debts after 1990 totaled around $1 trillion, about 30% of Japan’s GDP. The result was the bursting of the 1980s bubble and a period of little or no economic growth that lasted well over a decade.
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December 8th, 2007 at 5:01 pm
For me the mystery is why are Americans so hard-wired against acknoledging the commodities boom.