Readings: Indiabulls & Mittal, Gold tops $880, Sensex in 2008

Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd., backed by billionaire Lakshmi Mittal, predicts a planned fund management unit will rank among India’s top five by 2010, seeking to replicate successes from broking to real estate.

Banga, who models Indiabulls on Charles Schwab Corp., the biggest U.S. discount brokerage, and Costco Wholesale Corp., the largest U.S. chain of wholesale-warehouse stores, is taking a bet on an economy forecast by the government to expand 9% this year, …

Assets under management at mutual funds in India swelled more than fourfold to 5.4 trillion rupees in the five years to November.

Gold rose 2.4% to $880.20 a troy ounce in US trading helped by new investor inflows at the start of the year, rising oil prices and concerns over the outlook for the dollar.

In China, trading in gold futures is due to begin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on Wednesday.

Investment demand for gold has been rising steadily with holdings in streetTRACKS, the largest gold exchange traded fund (GLD), increasing to a record high of 639.35 tonnes on Monday.

This year BSE Capital Goods sector should move its last leg up to complete the cycle trend the sector started in 2002. The index should complete the last leg up from current 20,000 levels to 25,000. This should be the first leading indicator after which identifying a Primary (multi year) top for Sensex should be easy.

So if Sensex has to form a primary top this year, Banking should lead. We are not looking above 15,000 on BSE BANK Index (up 25% from current levels). Bad timing as you may call it with Capital goods and Banking under pressure, Energy topping late 2008 or early 2009, we will be ready for the proverbial bust heading into 2010 and 2011 Benner cycle lows.

 

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