Readings: Private banking, Domestic money, Deflation?

The Merrill Lynch-Cap Gemini 2007 World Wealth Report says, Asia accounted for five of the 10 fastest growing high net worth individuals (HNI) markets. India ranks second in terms of growth at 20.5 per cent . . .

At Citi, the threshold relationship level is $10 million. For Deutsche Bank and HSBC, it is at a million dollars.

Talent supply is constraining the growth of the wealth management industry in the region, not just India. The skill sets required are entirely different from mass retail banking. And given the sensitivities involved, the required maturity level mirrors that in high-end investment banking.

Asian investors are riding to the rescue of the global fund management industry at a time when European investors are fleeing en masse and US demand remains muted.

. . . long-term flows into investment funds from Asian investors increased from $72bn (£36bn, €46bn) in 2004 to $421bn last year, surpassing those of the US.

with Asian equity markets falling sharply – Shanghai and Bombay are down 55 per cent and 37 per cent respectively from their highs – there are fears that Asia’s army of investors may sound a retreat. In the first quarter of 2008 net inflows from Asia fell to their lowest level since 2005.

Four of the above mentioned factors - a massive wealth loss, a severe contraction of monetary conditions as measured by both money and velocity, deteriorating global demand and an enormous decline in consumer expectations - all point to a downward shift in aggregate demand, meaning lower inflation.

In the past three months, commercial bank credit (loans and investments) plus commercial paper contracted at a 7.2% annual rate. A record decline for the nearly four decade history of this series.

Aggregate supply and demand analysis can be confirmed by three different indicators - the unemployment rate, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate, and the output gap. Presently, all indicate that the U.S. economy faces insufficient aggregate demand, and consequently disinflationary pressures.

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