GalaTime

December 31, 2007

Buffett’s deal streak, Winners & losers in 2007, An Inconvenient Year

Filed under: fun, investing — Kaushik @ 9:29 am

On Friday, Buffett stunned Wall Street by announcing that he would enter the troubled bond insurance business. He also spent about $440 million for a unit of ING Groep, the Dutch financial giant.

Three days earlier, on Christmas, he agreed to buy a $4.5 billion stake in the industrial conglomerate owned by the Pritzker family. And a few weeks before that, he waded into the junk bond market, buying $2.1 billion of debt issued by TXU, the electric utility.

DEALMAKER OF THE YEAR To Rupert Murdoch, who did the impossible, again. You bought virtually the only asset in the world that wasn’t for sale. And you did it without having to raise your bid. Granted, the price might never make financial sense, and you were negotiating with the gang-that-can’t-shoot-straight. But for you, the asset is priceless. Now please don’t mess it up.

FROM PAWN TO KING AWARD To Nelson Peltz of the Triarc Companies. Nelson had a huge year. Once considered the Rodney Dangerfield of Wall Street, not getting any respect — he was described in “Predators’ Ball” as Michael Milken’s “pawn” — he has reinvented himself as an activist investor in recent years. But he’s no hold-up artist. Managements at Heinz, Wendy’s and Cadbury Schweppes have begun listening to him, perhaps under duress, but listening nonetheless. All shareholders seem likely to reap the benefits.

. . . other than that, 2007 was a disaster. American consumers came to fear products manufactured in China, which covers pretty much everything in the typical American home, except the dirt. Global warming continued to worsen, despite the efforts of leading climate experts such as Madonna and Leonardo DiCaprio, who emerged briefly from private jets to give the rest of us helpful tips on reducing our carbon footprints.

On the economic front, the dollar continued to lose value against all major foreign currencies and most brands of bathroom tissue. There was a major collapse in the credit market, caused by the fact that for most of this decade, every other radio commercial has been some guy selling mortgages to people who clearly should not have mortgages. (“No credit? No job? On death row? No problem!”) It got so bad that you couldn’t let your dog run loose because it would come home with a mortgage. The subprime mortgage fiasco resulted in huge stock market losses, and the executives responsible, under the harsh rules of Wall Street justice, were forced to accept lucrative retirement packages.

:-)

December 30, 2007

Bangalore Real Estate: 3BHK rental in Sobha Primrose, 18500 to 15000

Filed under: real-estate — Kaushik @ 10:47 am

Yet another data point on the tanking (residential) real estate market in the ORR/Sarjapur Road are in Bangalore; this time it’s my favorite flogging horse, the Sobha Primrose apartment complex.

Dec 5 ad in Craigslist

INR18500 Sobha Primrose.

Reply to: xxxxxxxx@gmail.com

Date: 2007-12-05, 10:41AM IST

Semi Furnished Flat Available For rent on 8th floor.

Dec 29 ad in Craigslist

INR15000 / 3br - Sobha Primrose

Reply to: xxxxxxxx@gmail.com

Date: 2007-12-29, 10:48AM IST

Beautiful semi furnished flat available for immediate occupation on 8th floor with lake view balconies.

For inspection kindly contact 98…

A 20% drop in the rental price, in less than a month! What do you think this does to the other apartment owners who were hoping to rent out at 17-20k per month?

Now assume that the apartment owner bought this flat at a rate of Rs 2000 per sq ft. That works out to a net price of ~ Rs 35 lakhs. The monthly installment on a loan of 35 lakhs, over a 20-year tenure, and with a very optimistic fixed interest rate of 10% is Rs 34000 per month!

That’s not a very attractive investment to have made, where you are paying out 34k a month, getting in 15k a month (if you can find a tenant), and are facing headwinds in the market that severely limit any price appreciation in the near future.

Readings: Indian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Gold at record high, Rogers on India

Filed under: commodities, exchange-rates, gold — Kaushik @ 10:10 am

India has accumulated $272 bn in foreign currency reserves but these are still being invested in low-risk OECD government securities and bank deposits yielding less than 5%. When one considers that Temasek has earned 18% on its $100bn portfolio and Harvard University 13% on its $35bn endowment since inception, the scale of lost earnings are going to be staggering.

. . . we are one of only four countries along with Japan, Taiwan and Saudi Arabia in the top ten to not create an SWF (Saudi Arabia, however, diversifies its holdings on the central bank balance sheet so it is really Japan, Taiwan and India).

. . . the RBI estimates that the ratio of volatile capital flows (cumulative portfolio investment and short-term debt) was only 38% of the reserves as of March 2007.

Gold prices rallied to an all-time high of Rs 10,715 on the bullion market.

February gold settled at $842.70 an ounce, up $10.90, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

It may have a bigger size than stock market in India, but the government needs to be taught the meaning of commodity market to become a top investment destination, renowned investor Jim Rogers feels.

“India should be one of the great commodity centres of the world. It will never become one unless someone teaches the government. It will be too late by the time they wake up.”

 

December 29, 2007

Readings: Domestic banks in equities, Calories - Capital - Climate, REITs in India

Filed under: real-estate, statistics — Kaushik @ 9:40 am

. . . total bank investments in stocks by the country’s commercial banks rose by 36% in FY07 from Rs 11,028 crore to Rs 15,001 crore.

But within bank groups, nationalised banks (with the highest direct investments at Rs 9,398 crore as of March ‘07) as well as the State Bank group hiked their exposure by more than 50% during the period.

For the current year, though bank-wise details are not available, total investments by banks, including regional rural banks, rose 18% between end-March ‘07 and December ‘07 from Rs 18,344 crore to Rs 21,654 crore

Growing use of food crops in biofuels and increasing demand for a protein-rich diet in developing countries may have pushed up prices more permanently.

Higher oil prices will also boost the attractiveness of coal as an energy source, delaying any meaningful reduction in carbon emissions in fast-growing Asian nations such as China and India.

India’s $900 billion economy has attracted $100 billion in capital in the 12 months through October, with a third of the money entering the country as overseas borrowings.

Banks, public financial institutions, insurance companies and corporate houses can be trustees of REITs, which should be created under the Indian Trusts Act, according to SEBI.

The trust and management company are required to be registered with SEBI and they should have a minimum networth of Rs 5 crore. REITs will be close-ended and the schemes will be compulsorily listed on stock exchanges.

Private equity firms have invested nearly Rs 25,000 crore in Indian real estate and infrastructure in 2007.

 

Bangalore Real Estate: Sobha Iris, 3500 to 3300 to 3000 to ?

Filed under: real-estate — Kaushik @ 9:18 am

More data on the weakening residential real estate prices in South East Bangalore; specifically a 3BHK apartment in Sobha Iris:

Craigslist has several ads for the same apartment, by the same broker.

  • Builder/market rate (per the ad) is Rs 3500 per sq ft
  • Broker willing to sell for Rs 3300 per sq ft (Ads on December 1, 21 & 23)
  • Broker drops the price to Rs 3000 per sq ft (Ad on December 29)

That’s a 10% drop in a month. And given that this is a broker, I would wager that one can get at-least another 10% negotiation discount. Of course, even a rate of Rs 2700 per sq ft doesn’t make it an attractive investment, given rentals of less than Rs 20,000 per month.

December 28, 2007

Bangalore Real Estate: Buy vs. Rent at Sun City, ORR

Filed under: real-estate — Kaushik @ 10:09 pm

The Outer Ring Road (ORR) / Sarjapur Road area in South-East Bangalore continues to face significant price headwinds in residential real estate. Consider these two ads at Craigslist for 3BHK apartments in a big apartment complex called Sun City:

Rent: Rs 14,000 per month

Rent a 3BHK apartment at Sun City, ORR, Bangalore

Buy: Rs 57 lakhs + registration ~ Rs 65 lakhs.

Buy a 3BHK apartment at Sun City, ORR, Bangalore

Assume we fully finance this with a loan of Rs 65 lakhs, with a fixed interest rate of 13% over a tenure of 20 years. Per HDFC’s EMI calculator, the monthly installment works out to Rs 76,000 - versus a rent of 14,000!

The Price / Annualized Rent ratio is 65 lakhs / 1.7 lakhs = 38; the corresponding annual rental yield is 2.6%.

Given the over-supply of apartments, it is unlikely that rents will go up much over the next few years. That implies a correction of at-least 30% in prices, for this to make sense from the buyer’s perspective.

Readings: India bond funds, Subprime in 2008, Too big to fail

Filed under: economics — Kaushik @ 9:17 am

Bond funds doubled their holdings of Indian debt, Asia’s best-performing investment-grade market in 2007, predicting currency gains will stop commodity prices from fueling inflation.

Debt funds in India, including the local units of Deutsche Asset Management and ING Investment Management, more than doubled this year to 2.1 trillion rupees ($54 billion), according to data compiled by the Association of Mutual Funds in India.

India’s finance ministry this month credited a stronger rupee and improved supply management for curbing commodity price increases.

If this was the year that many readers - not to mention financial reporters - learned what CDO, MBS and SIV stood for, 2008 could be the year of CDS and CLO.

(For those who came in late, those are collateralized debt obligations, mortgage-backed securities and structured investment vehicles. The new ones are credit default swaps and collateralized loan obligations - a special kind of CDO backed by corporate loans.)

One of the more remarkable facts about the subprime crisis is that total losses to the financial system may be about equal to the amount of subprime loans that were issued.

. . . the ratio of housing prices to income achieved nearly a four standard deviation (SD) reading. To put this in perspective, a one SD event occurs once every six years. A two SD event every 44 years. A three SD event every 740 years. And a four SD event every 31,575 years! Clearly, the United States is in the midst of a severe housing problem compounded by fancy mortgages that gave unqualified consumers the ability to buy houses they really could not afford.

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DISCLAIMER: The author is not a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and that you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.