- Asia Times: India revels in hot commodities
India’s commodity exchange markets, where trading volume has ballooned 50-fold in barely five years, could shrug off a recent drop in business and almost double in size within the next two years, according to a report.
The market, which has grown to US$858 billion in 2007 from $16.9 billion in 2002, could expand to $1.8 trillion by 2010.
Three large exchanges - MCX, the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX) in Mumbai, and Ahmedabad-based National Multi Commodity Exchange of India - now lead a sector revival after a ban on futures trading in most commodities was lifted in 2003.
- Bloomberg: China’s Reserves Fit Harvard Linguist’s Law
Statistically speaking, there’s nothing `normal,’ or bell-shaped, about the way $6 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves is distributed around the world. The top five holders control more than half of these assets, with China alone accounting for 24% of the total.
Mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot, who discovered such a relationship for U.S. cotton prices in 1963, used it as a building block of a new “fractal” theory of financial markets.
Sumlinski has now extended the analysis to foreign reserves, and he finds that Zipf’s rule, when applied to the distribution of as much as 90% of worldwide official assets, fits the data very well.
- Financial Times: Why the Baltic Dry Index matters
As the key measure of global prices for shipping dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal, the BDI is the window on what CLSA’s Christopher Wood described in his client newsletter Greed & Fear last November as a “supreme cyclical indicator”.
The recent collapse of the index is a strong signal that the boom in agricultural commodity prices is about to come to an end . . .
A recent theory doing the rounds of the shipping and commodities world lays blame for the slide in dry bulk shipping rates - and consequently the BDI - on a single Taiwanese shipping magnate: Nobu Su, whose privately held Taiwan Maritime Transport is the largest participant in shipping futures markets