GalaTime

October 19, 2009

Short Gold Position - Time to double up?

Filed under: gold — Kaushik @ 7:21 pm

One of the many experiments at galatime.com was the idea of Virtual Portfolios - where Rs 500,000 is deployed in the Indian markets - virtually! The whole thing has been dead for a while, and my portfolio contains only 1 position - Short Gold.

With gold hitting highs throughout the year, this position couldn’t have had worse timing! But what the heck - it’s a new year and I feel fine! So if I was trading the portfolio, I would double up on the position and short the MCX Gold Future at ~ 15850. Call me crazy - what with Harrods getting into gold sales - but I think the time is ripe for a major reversal in gold over the next 6-12 months.

Just look at the awful dollar sentiment everywhere and the ‘I love gold’ mania. No shortage of optimism in emerging or commodity markets, US markets at/near 52-week highs, oil at a new yearly high, the list goes on … seems to me that ‘long gold’ is an over-crowded trade by far.

May 13, 2009

Long silver, Short gold?

Filed under: commodities, gold — Kaushik @ 11:12 am

From GoldInfo:

May 6, 2009

Diamonds are forever. Most of the time.

Filed under: commodities, gold — Kaushik @ 8:04 pm

A few charts worth noting:

Historical diamond price chart, graph 1949 to 2009

The late 70s / early 80s chart mirrors the bubble in gold prices.

2005 - 2006 IDEX Polished Price Index (100 = June 2004)

(100 = June 2004)

(100 = June 2004)

From a peak of 130 in August 2008 down to 108 now.

March 14, 2009

Readings: Finland Forestry, Gold Bull, 10-year Rolling Returns

Filed under: commodities, gold, statistics — Kaushik @ 3:38 pm

Increased use of the Internet is cutting demand for pulp and paper, which account for about two-thirds of industry revenue, according to the Finnish Forest Research Institute. This has helped drive down the price of newsprint in Europe by 19 percent to 495 euros ($639) per ton in the seven years since December 2001. In addition, companies including Metso Oyj, the world’s biggest manufacturer of papermaking machines and rock crushers, are moving production to countries where labor and other costs are lower.

As paper mills close, a growing number of young people are moving to cities from northern rural areas to find work. Kemijaervi has shrunk a third to 8,600 residents since 1981, while Helsinki has grown 17 percent to 563,000 inhabitants. The shift has left roads, bridges and other infrastructure unused in smaller towns, while new highways and homes now need to be built in the cities.

March 10, 2009

Readings: Economic ‘experts’, Chinese luxury gold, Shorting central banks

Filed under: economics, gold, real-estate — Kaushik @ 10:37 am

Free market theory, mathematical models and hostility to government regulation still reign in most economics departments at colleges and universities around the country. True, some new approaches have been explored in recent years, particularly by behavioral economists who argue that human psychology is a crucial element in economic decision making. But the belief that people make rational economic decisions and the market automatically adjusts to respond to them still prevails.

. . . the two thinkers whose work is most relevant today are John Maynard Keynes, who argued that the government should spend its way out of the Great Depression, and Hyman Minsky, who maintained that financial institutions could prompt ruinous crashes by taking on too much risk. Neither, Mr. Galbraith said, is part of the core curriculum in most economics graduate programs.

“Everything that the developers are building is ‘luxury’ or ‘imperial’: luxury apartments, luxury shopping mall, luxury hotels,” said Hu Xingdou, an economics professor at the Beijing Institute of Technology. “But this is not what the Chinese people need or can afford.”

His company counted 126 hotel openings in Beijing last year, adding 29,000 rooms. Hotels that missed their deadlines for completion are still opening.

Even the Olympics were disappointing for Beijing’s hotel industry. Despite advance word that all hotel rooms would be sold out during the Games, hotels were only 67 percent occupied during August, the Olympic month, according to STR Global, a hotel research business.

Hedge fund investors who made money last year by betting against investment banks are now buying gold as a way of betting against central banks.

“The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is exploding and the currency is being debased. Our guess is that if the chairman of the Fed is determined to debase the currency, he will succeed,” Mr Einhorn wrote in a recent letter to his investors. “Our instinct is that gold will do well either way: deflation will lead to further steps to debase the currency, while inflation speaks for itself.”

March 2, 2009

Readings: SEC breakdown, Chinese factories, Grant on gold

Filed under: economics, gold — Kaushik @ 7:39 am

In 2007, Cox pushed through a rule requiring SEC staff to get authorization from commissioners for financial penalties before settling a case. Cox says the rule was an experiment designed to streamline the process.

In fact, it quickly created delays and obstacles, so much so that SEC officials often stopped seeking penalties. “It wasn’t worth it,” a former commissioner says. “All they got was abuse every time they went before the commission and asked for penalties.” Some investigations didn’t get even that far. Gary Aguirre, a senior SEC lawyer, sought to question the chairman of Morgan Stanley in a fraud investigation but was denied permission before Cox arrived. He later told Congress that his superiors, fearing the banker’s “very powerful political connections” in Washington, had delayed the probe, dooming any chance of making a case–allegations that a Republican Senate report later found credible.

Eventually, enforcers at the SEC grew demoralized. One by one, key officials left the agency; Aguirre was fired under Cox. Sensitive cases seemed to lag. Cox has admitted that his staff brushed off “credible and specific” reports of fraud committed by Madoff over the past 10 years and did not seek subpoena power or bring tips to the attention of commissioners.

The global crisis is exposing deep flaws in China’s development model. As overseas shoppers have closed their wallets, China is learning the downside of a dependence on making cheap stuff for the rest of the world. Years of pumping up its industrial strength by throwing money into superhighways and supersized factories have left it too muscle-bound for its own good.

Fixed-asset investment – in things such as land, building and machinery – has grown by a pell-mell annual rate of 20 per cent and more. One result: China has no less than 80 car makers and thousands of steel mills.

Services, meanwhile, account for just 40 per cent of GDP, compared to 54 per cent in other middle-income countries and 70 per cent in high-income countries.

The gold standard — i.e., the gold standard — was the monetary system more or less continuously in place between Waterloo and World War I. It was simplicity itself. Bank notes were exchangeable into gold, and gold into bank notes, at a fixed, inviolable rate. A central bank’s everyday job was to facilitate this exchange. Of what we know today as “monetary policy” — i.e., manipulating interest rates or the money supply to promote full employment or to pull the economy out of the ditch — the conscientious central banker would have no part.

To John Maynard Keynes the sheer caprice of digging up gold out of the Earth only to rebury it in the vaults of the Bank of England was insupportable. And Keynes, so Mr. Ahamed insists, was right: “There is no greater testament of his legacy . . . than that in the 60-odd years since he spoke, . . . armed with his insights, the world has avoided an economic catastrophe such as overtook it in the years from 1929-33.”

February 26, 2009

Readings: Gold imports, Commodity reverse cycle, Treasury bear

Filed under: bonds, commodities, gold — Kaushik @ 11:19 am

Gold imports fell by a third to 20 tonnes in January this year from a monthly average of 60 tonnes last year. By all available indications, imports will be negligible in February when prices crossed the Rs 15,000-limit.

Sources in the association estimated that total imports would fall to around 400 tonnes in 2009 — one of the lowest in the last decade, and almost 45 per cent lower than last year’s level.

All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation Chairman Ashok Minawala said scrap gold sales jumped 20 to 25 per cent from the average daily recovery of 500 kg.

In 2008, each one of these factors went sharply into reverse. The global financial crisis resulted in reduced availability and higher cost of debt, affecting commodities through several channels. Leveraged investors were forced to liquidate their positions as leverage was reduced and investors redeemed capital. The reduction in debt also reduced global growth sharply and the demand for most resources.
Resources companies compounded the problems through aggressive acquisitions that were sometimes debt-financed. Unlike financial assets, commodities, for the most part, are subject to the laws of economic gravity—supply and demand.
The most emblematic project of this cycle is a project proposed by Tarek bin Laden, one of Osama bin Laden’s many half-brothers. The project entails twin cities on either side of the Bab al-Mandib (Gate of Tears) strait at the mouth of the Red Sea linked by a 29km bridge across the strait. The project cost was estimated at $200 billion.

In Asia, avoid real estate in financial centres, but look at things such as soft commodities, which, while volatile, are on an upward trend.

There are also opportunities in pharmaceutical and hospital management companies, and in banks, insurance companies and brokers, especially in emerging economies.

Opportunities also abound in plantations and farmlands in Indonesia, Malaysia, Latin America and the Ukraine. He also advised investors to go long on gold and corporate bonds but to dump US government bonds.

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DISCLAIMER: The author is not a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and that you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.